I interpreted this as expected value, and I knew how to compute the expected value of a pdf of a random variable. I’ll also admit that I didn’t immediately see the simple approach to the answer and rushed my post in the time I had available to get it up before the answer went live on FiveThirtyEight.ġ-Use a PDF: The original FiveThirtyEight post asked for the expected time before the siblings simultaneously finished their tasks. Rather than just accepting the alternative solution, as too many students are wont to do, I acknowledged the more efficient approach of others before proceeding to find a way to get the answer through my initial idea. I argue Dan’s advice actually applies to all teachers, so in the spirit of showing how to stick with a problem and not just walking away saying “I was wrong”, I’m going to keep my original post up, add an advisory note at the start about the error, and show below how I corrected my error.Ĭonfession #2: My approach was a much longer and far less elegant solution than the identical approaches offered by a comment by “P” on my last post and the solution offered on FiveThirtyEight. While not precisely from the same perspective, Dan Teague recently wrote an excellent, short piece of advice to new teachers on NCTM’s ‘blog entitled Demonstrating Competence by Making Mistakes. Many students struggle with mathematics under the misconception that their first attempts at any topic should be as polished as what they read in published sources. I briefly thought about taking that post down, but discarded that idea when I thought about the reality that almost all published mathematics is polished, cleaned, and optimized. Confession #1: My answers on my last post were WRONG.
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12/26/2023 0 Comments Sims 4 tea moodsI use a lot of her small fix mods, so please check out the website and see which ones appeal to you. Not listed are ALL the mods by Bienchenmods. These mods fix some annoyances with the unmodded game or overhaul existing systems to make them better. SNB & SNB Bills – Creates an extensive financial/banking system similar to real life including bank accounts, direct deposit, bill pay, property tax, rent, and more! The Bills mod makes you setup your utilities when moving in and you have to pay a deposit just like IRL! I also use the SNB Financial Center Lot Trait that allows you to create realistic banks for your Sims.LittleMsSam’s ATM Cards & Credit – I use the ATM machines in my banks.Use together with Into the Light for the best experience. Out of the Dark – Lighting mod that improves indoor lighting, especially at night.Into the Light – Lighting mod that removes blue auras from around Sims and helps them blend into the world better.Cube Map Remover – Removes the white square cube maps that give the game objects weird and unattractive reflections.These mods change or modify the game environment in some way. I couldn’t live without this anymore because I use clubs extensively in my game. More Club Icons – Adds a ton of new club icons for Get Together.More Club Activities – Adds herbalism, practice archaeology, collecting, and many more.I like the ROM additions such as practice magic and read magic tomes, but it adds stuff for all expansions. Custom Club Activities – Adds a ton of new club activities.These mods affect the club system that came with the Get Together expansion pack. Parenthood Autonomous Traits Interactions – Makes interactions from parenthood traits autonomous.No Autonomous Cooking – Stops your Sims from cooking meals autonomously, but they can still grab quick meals when they’re hungry.Grab Wine or Beer from the Fridge – Sims will autonomously grab wine or beer from the fridge sometimes.Plus, adds more types of arguments for Sims to have. For example, children will no longer autonomously do dishes and elders will not browse their phones, preferring to read.
12/26/2023 0 Comments Encore energy stock forecast“Texas exposure: CenterPoint's Houston Electric subsidiary owns the regulated transmission and distribution network serving 2.5 million customers in the Texas Gulf Coast area, including Houston. This should continue to drive dividend growth near the top end of management's 6%-8% target over at least the next five years and possibly much longer.” We expect this growth investment to receive regulatory support and continue well beyond this decade. Over 85% of the total investment is for safety and reliability, such as replacing bare steel, cast iron, and vintage plastic pipes. We expect over $12 billion of capital expenditures during the next five years, exceeding the top end of management's $11 billion-$12 billion target. Favorable regulatory frameworks and large infrastructure investment opportunities have driven strong earnings growth and steady dividend increases averaging more than 8% annually in recent years. Yet Atmos' operations, earnings, and dividend remain a model of consistency. Once one of the priciest utilities, Atmos is now one of the cheapest after a 24% drop in the stock price since January 2020. 18.Ītmos is one of our top utilities picks, based on its attractive valuation and long-term growth. Atmos had $3.0 billion of liquidity as of Feb. Atmos maintains one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector and we expect it will be able to finance these payments through cash on hand and short-term debt without issuing additional equity beyond the $500 million we estimate will be needed to finance its 2021 infrastructure investments. Although there will be a cash timing lag, we don't expect a material impact on 2021 earnings or long-term value. As a regulated gas distribution utility, Atmos is allowed to recover all supply costs from customers in the states it serves. In the near term, Atmos management said it could face $2.5 billion-$3.5 billion of natural gas purchase costs payable next month due to the extreme gas price movements across its service territories. Atmos also operates APT, a 5,700-mile intrastate pipeline in Texas spanning several key shale gas formations and interconnected with five storage facilities. “Texas exposure: Regulated gas distribution system serves more than 2 million customers in Texas. Our equity research team believes heating electrification will stretch an already-stressed electric grid, especially during cold winter months. Using gas to heat homes and water is cheaper than electricity. This has led to a sell-off of gas utilities, but we think the market is overreacting to this long-term threat. New policies would prohibit natural gas in new buildings. Opposition to carbon-emitting fossil fuels is driving a fringe movement to eliminate residential and commercial use of natural gas, particularly in California. electricity demand to increase by 1.2% annually over the next 10 years. States like Illinois, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts face falling electricity demand. Texas, Arizona, and Virginia are three states with increasing electricity demand due to a rebounding economy, data center expansion, and increasing interest in electric vehicles. In addition, wind turbines can produce energy in cold temperatures, but investment is required for them to operate more efficiently during extreme cold.Īn already-stressed Texas electric grid will likely see further issues. The biggest challenge is intermittency: producing solar and wind energy when it isn’t sunny or windy. Despite Texas being a large producer of wind and solar energy, there will be hurdles to expand renewable energy across the U.S. That includes 50 gigawatts in wind and solar energy to go online in the next three years-with a significant portion going to Texas. We expect wind and solar energy to double their market share in the United States by 2030. This focused attention on utilities companies nationwide, and our Utilities equity research team believes they must address three key areas going forward. Widespread power outages in Texas left millions without power during severe winter weather last month. 12/26/2023 0 Comments Drawit paintLook at the way that light reflects off of different surfaces, and pay attention to the way that shadows are cast. Take a look at the world around you and begin to notice all of the different textures that exist. The key to inventing your own textures is to start with the basics. It can be helpful to look at photographs of wrinkled skin for inspiration, paying close attention to the way the light catches the different contours. Once you have the general shape mapped out, you can begin to add shading, using light and dark strokes to create depth and dimension. One way to achieve this is to start with a light pencil sketch, outlining the basic shape of the wrinkles. The key is to capture the delicate balance between the wrinkles and the underlying skin tone. Drawing Wrinkly Skin Textureĭrawing wrinkly skin textures can be a challenging but rewarding task for any artist. Rough textures will often reflect light in unpredictable ways, so make sure to capture this in your drawing. Thick lines will create a more pronounced texture, while thin lines will create a more subtle effect.Īs you work, pay attention to the way light falls on the surface. To add more depth and variation, experiment with different line weights. The goal is to create a series of tiny lines that mimic the look of a rough surface. Then, using a pencil or charcoal, begin to add short, quick strokes in different directions. Drawing Hair Textureĭrawing rough texture surfaces can be done by first sketching out the basic shape of your subject. With a little practice, you will be able to create realistic drawings of tree bark texture. A soft pencil will help to create shadows and add depth, while a harder pencil will allow you to create sharper lines and highlights.Įxperiment with different strokes and shading techniques until you find a method that works for you. Next, choose a pencil that will give you the right amount of contrast. Pay attention to the direction of the grain and the way the light reflects off the surface. First, take a close look at the bark of the tree you want to draw. There are a few basic steps that will help you get started. Once you have a good understanding of the basics, you can start to experiment with different pencils, papers, and techniques. In order to create a realistic drawing, it is important to study the texture of real tree bark. There are many different types of bark, and each one has its own unique patterns and colors. Although it may look like a simple texture, it is actually quite complex.
12/26/2023 0 Comments Multiple strings theoryThink of walking on a tightrope, Nelson said. On a daily basis, we experience just four dimensions (up/down, left/right, forward/back, and time). String theory only works in a universe with at least 10 dimensions. James Halverson assistant professor of physics But we demonstrated a selection mechanism that could someday be an important piece of the final answer.” “We haven’t even come close to explaining why the world is the way it is. The vibrations of these strings create the different particles we observe, such as quarks or electrons. The idea that multiple versions of the universe could exist comes from string theory, a mathematical description of the universe that posits that everything is made up of strings too small for us to detect. “We’re trying to break down those barriers.” “When it comes to computational methods that have taken the rest of science by storm, whether it’s machine learning or network science, this branch of physics has been somewhat isolated from that,” said Brent Nelson, an associate professor of physics and associate dean of undergraduate affairs for the College of Science at Northeastern. But these same techniques are rarely applied to theoretical physics. In recent years, network science has been used to model disease epidemics, study connections in the human brain, and understand how ideas spread through social media. Now a group of theoretical physicists and network scientists at Northeastern have found a new way to tackle this problem: by analyzing these possible universes as a network. These questions might seem like part of a philosophical discussion, but some physicists consider their answers a necessary step in understanding the fundamental nature of our universe. Which bubble are we in? And why, of all the possible universes, did we end up in this one? And for each of these universes, the laws of physics are slightly different. Imagine that within each bubble, there is a universe. Imagine a boiling pot of water, with bubbles perpetually forming and rising to the top. 12/26/2023 0 Comments Commando full movie watch onlineVerdictĬommando 2 could not live up to its sequel Commando, which was a huge success and helped establish Jammwal in the industry. Vidyut looks a bit opened up in the movie. Vidyut Jammwal had the responsibility on his shoulders but a poor script and poor direction could not save the film. This song is not likely to stay with the audience. Thereee is only one song in the movie, which is like an item number. Thereee is nothing to talk about this department. The entire plot is predictable so is the protagonist’s action moves. Poor direction coupled with poor cinematography make the movie very slow. Thereee is no scene where you feel like investing yourself. Slow screenplay and boring pace make Commando 2 a forgettable affair. The movie does not do great in the department of direction. Karan’s colleague who was just killed by Karan gets up. She is successful in transferring the money but Karan tells her that she has actually transferred the money to millions of accounts of Indian farmers. He now moves towards Vicky who whips out a pistol to shoot Karan. The Final Fight and Money Donated to Farmer But Karan will have to first go through her deadly bodyguard. They both engage in a while after which the other dies. Her bodyguard is there and suddenly Karan’s colleague arrives. She is here to transfer all the money to her account. Karan follows Vicky and finally traces her to a rooftop. The police team makes other plans while other colleague joins hands with the enemy to kill Karan. Meanwhile, one member of the police team dies. She is the real villain who has got all the money of India meant for the development of the poor. Later it is known that Vicky’s wife is real Vicky Chaddha. Police kill everyone in the gang but Karanĭecides to help Vicky’s wife flee because of which his colleague starts hating him. However, the next day, a gun battle ensues between the police and the gang that does not want Vicky to leave the country. Vicky’s wife is a beautiful woman who manages to trick Karanveer Singh Dogra into believing that she is innocent and he should help her flee to some other country. Vicky pleads not guilty of the crime and instead blame it on some other gang that killed his daughter with a bomb blast. When the Indian police team meets Vicky Chaddha at his residence, they are shocked to see him on a wheelchair. Karanveer and his team are on a mission to find Vicky Chaddha who is suspected to hide black money abroad. For this, the government decides to form a special team in which the best officers from different departments and states come together. One day the government decides to go hard on criminals who have laundered the money out of the country. He is a skilled fighter but has his ways to do things for which he is not liked by many people in the department. The story of Commando 2 revolves around commando Karanveer Singh Dogra. Vansh Bharadwaj as Maria’s husband and fake Vicky ChaddhaĬommando 2 Box Office Collection Update Day 1.Esha Gupta as Maria, later real Vicky Chaddha.Vidyut Jammwal as Commando Karanveer Singh Dogra.Commando 2 Full Movie is also available on ZEE5.If you have not subscribed for Amazon Prime Video till now then you have to subscribe for it to watch Commando 2 Full Movie online and subscription charges are nominal
12/26/2023 0 Comments Whiskey in the jar lyricsI’ve never smashed a plate in my life though – sorry! Very flattered to have seen my music featured on BBC Introducing, The Scotsman, The Scottish Sun, Tenement TV, Amazing Radio and Radio Wigwam, where I was nominated for Best Female Artist in 2020. Genre-agnostic so -headsup- my tunes don’t sound like each other or like their live versions… who cares, right? it’s good to expect the unexpected □ I’m based in Scotland but I’m originally from Greece and I bet you’ll hear that Eastern European influence in my mostly Northwestern sound. She says write music that’s the soundtrack of our dancing with our shadows. You are going to love this! - In this episode we sit down with Katherine Aly Here's how it went down. DBW understands the business, they’re easy to work with, professional, & will always put on a highly energetic live & very entertaining show. They’ve played both the Warped Tour & the Mayhem Festival & in rotation on Sirius Liquid Metal radio, Music Choice, Havok TV, MTV2’s Headbanger’s Ball, The Music Network, also currently in Touch Tunes, & the video game Rockband. DBW gained a fierce loyal following through relentless years of touring supporting such artists as Shadows Fall, Flotsam & Jetsam, ICP, Raven, P.O.D., Jasta/Hatebreed, to name a few. as well as in stores everywhere, including most mom-n-pop indie record shops & all FYE locations distributed by AEC/AMPED. “Dead By Wednesday” is available now online at iTunes, Spotify, Amazon, Target, etc. Their newest self-titled release is also on David Ellefson of Megadeth’s newly revamped Combat Records, a division of EMP. They’ve released one EP, four full length recordings including their unique guest vocalist album “Darkest of Angels” (EMP Label Group). Out the box, they quickly caught the attention of Jamey Jasta (Hatebreed) who went on to release their debut through his label, Stillborn Records. touring drummer for David Ellefson of Megadeth & Altitudes & Attitude featuring Frank Bello of Anthrax). Established in 2006 by drummer Opus, (ex-Gargantua Soul & current U.S. (DEAD BY WEDNESDAY) is a international American 4 Piece heavy metal group from New Haven, CT. Today, we sat down with Dead by Wednesday via skype with Opus, the drummer and their brand new lead singer! This is how it went down!ĭ.B.W. Up Close & On Fire w/ Lucia & Glynn: Presents Dead By Wednesday. Senate begins debate on Covid relief bill after limiting $1,400 checks, adding new spending Mom Allegedly Killed Boy She Didn't Want, and Dad Says 'All She Had to Do Was Give Him to Me'Ī popular flea collar was linked to nearly 1,700 animal deaths, report says, but the EPA hasn't issued any warnings about it It's good to see hard work for a good 3-4 years paid off really well with this.Īlec Baldwin Deactivates Twitter After Joke About Gillian Anderson 'Switching Accents' We also talked about how are on the move thanks to the death of Their newest release is an EP titled "Stay Up Words". The goal with this project is to refine and create music to enjoy and share with others. Hagen's Train is a Salt Lake City based collection of musicians. In his original music, you can hear the backbeat rhythms and musical influences of all the soul and early rock artists that he admires. Featuring two brand new studio tracks, along with cover versions of classics from Ace Frehley & Cyndi Lauper.īilly Buchanan is an exceptional, award winning songwriter. In this episode we heard music from the followingīlack Belt Theatre hits hard and fast with the 4-song EP, "Almost Never Give Up". 12/26/2023 0 Comments Adobe lightroom mac download freeif you move or rename your images or folders outside of Luminar, it will adjust its catalog accordingly. One huge advantage of Luminar’s library feature is that it can mirror your hard drive – i.e. Thankfully, there’s a decent DAM (Digital Asset Manager), meaning you can organise all your images into folders and collections, although it’s still a long way off Lightroom in this respect. There are over 60 great editing features of Luminar, but what about image management? It’s a real eye-opener, whatever your standard… and thankfully it has an affordable price tag. Luminar makes it simple for a non-professional photographer to turn a bland photo into something a pro would be proud of. (Lightroom, on the other hand, will apply its edits to the entire image, requiring you to manually mask things out.) Look at my video below where I used a JPEG of the Eiffel Tower found on the Internet to test Luminar’s capabilities – it made the sky replacement edit in just one click, and every gap in the tower shows the new sky perfectly:Īdding realistic sunrays and repositioning them is simple – note how the rays pass ‘behind’ objects!ĪI Enhance is similar to Lightroom’s Clarity and Dehaze sliders, but by using artificial intelligence, Luminar is able to automatically find elements like your sky, or people, and adjust them accordingly. Headline artificial-intelligence (A.I.) powered features include the ability to replace the entire sky of your landscape photo, or enhance the skin in a portrait photo… all just with one click. If you want to dive deeper, you should check Luminar vs Lightroom comparison which will help you understand the differences in both the editors. I write about it more in my full review, but in a nutshell, the latest version is a viable Lightroom alternative that offers some truly incredible features. It arrived at the perfect time when photographers of all levels were starting to look for a viable Lightroom alternative – see our full review.įirst iterations weren’t great, but thankfully, Skylum has really pulled its socks up since then! The most recent release of Luminar here in June 2022 is quite frankly mind-blowing. Luminar came onto the scene a few years ago as an affordable and simple image processing and editing software for users looking for a way to get their images looking great with minimal fuss. Save $15 by using coupon code SHOTKIT15 when purchasing Luminar. We also include the top free Lightroom alternative options for photographers who aren’t ready to invest in paid software. This guide features our summarised recommendations of the best photo editing software in 2022, which can be bought for a one-time fee. Best Free Lightroom Alternatives in 2022. Best Paid Lightroom Alternatives in 2022. Many others started to look elsewhere… At a glance: Many photographers accepted the change and paid for the upgrade, happy to have the convenient cloud storage and cross-device photo editing capabilities of Lightroom CC. Are you looking for a Lightroom Alternative which offers great image editing and organization features, but without any monthly costs?Ī few years ago, Adobe shocked the creative world by introducing a monthly subscription plan for all its Creative Cloud apps. 12/25/2023 0 Comments Fist of the north star orderJun 14 The ANN Aftershow - Made in Abyss: Problematic Masterpiece?.Jun 16 This Week in Anime - Celebrate Pride with Kase-san.Jun 17 This Week in Games - Return of the Zack.Jun 14 The Strongest Hero With the Weakest Crest Episodes 1-12.Jun 16 Macross Frontier: The False Songstress.Jun 6 How DARLING in the FRANXX Inspired a New York Times Bestselling YA Novel.Jun 6 The Best and Worst of Spring 2022, May 27-Jun 2.Jun 8 “Make it like a Hollywood Movie” - The Story of Macross Frontier Films' Official English Subtitles.
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